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评论对象: 如何第二次拯救银行?
如果政府无法负担就应缩减。为某企业做强做大不顾成本,不计损失的扩张,不应让老百姓多年的积蓄和退休金为其埋单。这玩儿很容易变成合法的财富转移游戏,当小心!
2013-07-13
评论对象: 如何第二次拯救银行?
资产证券化拯救银行的行为只是债务社会化的手段,治标不治本。这种盲目地保护银行的措施、最终将以社会投资者蒙受极大伤害告终,只会让少数人得益,银行也最终成为受害者。疯狂的信贷扩张应该急刹车,发展应回到可持续的模式上。某些政府支持的企业需要资金,就让政府注资或借出罢了,面对社会投资者的投资或商业银行都不应再用包装不良资产来蒙骗,转嫁危机。为着眼前不顾及将来就不会有将来,这是很筒单的道理。
2013-07-13
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, I would like to quote some words from Ralph Waldo Emerson : Prudence ----Wisdom will never let us stand with any man or men on an unfriendly footing. We refuse sympathy and intimacy with people, as if we waited for some better sympathy and intimacy to come. But whence and when? To-morrow will be like to-day. Life wastes itself whilst we are preparing to live. Our friends and fellow workers die off from us. Scarcely can we say, we see new men, new women,approaching us. We are too old to regard fashion, too old to expect patronage of any greater or more powerful. Let us suck the sweetness
of those affections and consuetudes that grow near us. These old shoes are easy to the feet. Undoubtedly, we can easily pick faults in our company, can easily whisper names prouder, and that tickle the fancy more. Every man's imagination hath its friends; and life would be dearer with such companions. But, if you cannot have them on good
mutual terms, you cannot have them. If not the Deity, but our ambition, hews and shapes the new relations, their virtue escapes, as
strawberries lose their flavor in garden-beds.

Thus truth, frankness, courage, love, humility, and all the virtues, range themselves on the side of prudence, or the art of securing a present well-being. I do not know if all matter will be
found to be made of one element, as oxygen or hydrogen, at last, but the world of manners and actions is wrought of one stuff, and, begin
where we will, we are pretty sure in a short space to be mumbling our ten commandments.
2013-07-08
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, I admire your fighting spirit and your honesty. I have no intention to criticize you. Having seen how your sensible comments were knocked back and how you were called bad name and insulted, I could not help to come out and quote some words from Bible  in expectation of that you could understand that your fight is not going to yield anything but more insulting from these guys no matter how reasonable and correct you are as you are dealing with people beyond reasons. Life experience gave me such lessons, sometimes painful one, that one could not change people easily, particularly those with egos . Of course, you could keep on going if you don‘t mind being called bad name and enjoy the fight. Be warned, it is a fight, not a rational discussion any more when they are not ready to eat humble pie.
2013-07-01
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, thanks for your nice words altho I don‘t think I deserve any credit at all. I followed Bible teaching : 7 ;He that reproveth a scorner getteth for himself shame, and he that rebuketh a wicked man getteth himself a reproach.
8 ;Reprove not a scorner, lest he hate thee; rebuke a wise man, and he will love thee.
2 ;When pride cometh, then cometh shame, but with the lowly is wisdom.
23 ;A prudent man concealeth knowledge, but the heart of fools proclaimeth foolishness.
27 ;He that hath knowledge spareth his words, and a man of understanding is of excelling spirit.
28 ;Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise, and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding. ( Proverbs)
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
魂六,同意你不应以说服人作为发贴的动机和平和讨论的见解,尽管每个人潜意识中都会期望别人认同。最近我在思考市场预测问题时发现与人行为有关的预测根本是不可靠的,从金融市场、商业市场、经济运行到社会,这些人类活动的领域,变化几乎是不可预测,短期更是如此。我有时想,自己也不知自己半小时后会想做什么,自己也没办法了解自己的规律,遑论外界。有时预测只会令人盲目,忘记当下。
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
魂六,早上好!关于"说服人"问题,我指的是普遍的人性问题,也许在草根网上就象你说的更加难为之。可能我们每个人眼里认识的世界都不一样,每个人都有自己执着的"真理",有时对、有时错。或者我们每个人都需要去撞自己的"南墙"才能认识自己和认识世界,别人也许帮我们去认识世界,但撞"南墙"却无法代劳。
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, do you really want credit? Ok, you are right and very smart. How is that? Feeling a lot better now? If you care so much about how other people say about you or your ideas you live in other people world and eventually you would lose yourself.You got to be loyal to yourself, believe in the truth your own soul reveals to you. You would find comfort in your own world. Shalako, 你真想赞扬? 好吧,你对的,很聪明。如何?现在舒服很多了吧? 如果你如此在乎别人怎样评价你或你的观点,你就活在别人的世界里,最终迷失了你自己。你应忠于你自己,相信自己灵魂让你看到的真理。活在自己的世界才能找到安祥。
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
老汪,对于"钱慌"问题,银行同业拆息高企的现象,我愈想愈不对劲。央行这些年注入的流动性资金都往哪里去啦? 照理,无论谁借用了这些钱,这些资金去除压回央行作保证金外大部分都留在银行体系之内,只是从一个户口转到另一个户口,银行不应存在资金短缺,除非:1 有人把大笔资金调出银行体系之外,2 银行借货超庞大,被央行准备金回收了大部分资金。看来问题远非这么简单。
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, 我前段时候曾感叹过人很难改变别人,连自己也无法改变自己。有个教育家曾讲过: You cannot teach people, they have to learn. 可见想说服别人接受某种理念除非对方肯学你的东西。老汪,你说对吗?
2013-06-29
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
老汪,晚上好!Shalako年青,耐不住要争辩,很自然的反应。想当年,我们都是这样好强,哈哈!
2013-06-28
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
老G,鉴于你是铁杆的反美元党,反权贵先锋,给你说一些事情以便你更有的放矢地针砭时弊。西方有句话,谁有金子谁订规则。近年又发展到谁订规则谁就可得金子。草根网上有不少关于中国股市、房地产、经济、外贸、美债、中国崛起过程被受围堵等等文章和讨论,但甚少触及一个问题:如何不受制于人。西方的精英很强调控制,金融风暴其实是一种刻意安排的洗劫,把中产阶级推回贫穷或债务奴隶的过程,精英可藉此保持其统治地位。美元藉着二战美国军事和经济崛起建立了其霸主地位,成为了国际贸易结算和外汇储存货币,美联储成了全球的中央银行,控制着资金的水龙头,美元的价值对它并不重要,只要它喜欢随时操控利率,使美元汇率升或跌。美国在国际政治、经济、金融等等许多法规制定机构的影响力和控制地位,使它牢牢地控制着游戏规则。在他们的眼里,表面价值数字并不重要,实质控制和长远利益才是最重要,控制了游戏和游戏规则的制订,还怕赚不到金子?许多年前,美国的智库早已算计好中国庞大的外贸盈余,除了买美债,别无出路,中国这个冤大头沉醉于血汗劳动生产出口,却忽略了捂好自己的口袋、把这些血汗钱拱手让别人几乎无偿地使用和套上。不要被那美国每年要为国债付多少利息的论调所迷惑,美国的精英精得很,他们可能早已算计好如何数十百倍地赚回来。如果有人告诉我美国已经从中国股市和房地产套取了数千万亿,我绝对不惊奇,他们可能早已看穿中国的权贵想发财、哄抬股市和地产、何不来趟剪羊毛。如果讲最近中国银行"钱慌"是这些剪羊毛热钱退出所至,也很有可能。至于美元、黄金或其他商品,中国还是应该为自己需要量力而为、不要在别人控制的游戏里投机,捂住底牌是必要的。
2013-06-28
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
哈哈,老G你不愧是铁杆的反美元党,我明白你看出的阴谋。但全世界大部分的金融机构和热钱都与狼共舞,难道你要以寡敌众?胜算如何? 等到某一天中国有此实力时,别人也会与中国央行共舞。审时度势是必要的。
2013-06-28
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
美国房市已开始复苏,房货利率已回头窜升,一轮热钱会流入美国,美联储多年的宽松注入的资金应该有不少流向世界各地,美元汇率反弹和联储关于退出QE的暗示,进一步加速了这个去杠杆化步伐。
2013-06-28
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
搞不清中国央行救市背后的逻辑!美元热钱去杠杆化回流,还要托市,让这些热钱买个好价脱身?
2013-06-28
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
每次政府无论出于好意或什么政治意愿注资经济,大多会被少数利益团体窃取了大部分利益,无他,精英权贵的势力决定了他们可以在争取这些利益时处于无可比拟的优势,结果,政府花钱愈多,有人就愈发财,普罗大众和圈子外的企业就愈发困难。祈求神让当权者警醒以大众福祉为重,阿门!
2013-06-26
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
潮涨潮退,有起有落,这是自然的规律,涨的时候积蓄了落的力量,反之亦然,经济也有周期,有起落是自然不过的事。人为地过分干预市场令市场纠偏的力量无法发挥,只会令问题愈来愈严重,在温室里培育的市场很容易枯萎,很难持续。政府可以帮助有需要的人士和企业减轻调整过程中的痛苦,但不应去阻止市场调整。这不是利润源的问题,而是可持续性的问题。只要市场的活动得以自然恢复,交换过程中就可产生利润,而且这种活动具有自然的持续性。
2013-06-26
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
全球已开始进入新一轮去杠杆化过程,短期内几乎所有非现金资产都会被争相套现,软硬商品价格也同样不可避免受冲击,恐怕靠杠杆支撑着的世界繁荣将会出现支离破碎的景象,哀哉! 各国央行这些年放出的流动性,出口盈余国外汇储备注入世界经济体系的流动性,似乎已到物极必反的景地。短期而言,一切基本因素和技术因素似乎已经无法抵御这些庞大资金流向产生的冲击。看着挣扎着的金融市场和经济,我不禁要问,世界能否无痛苦地完成调整更生的进程? 宽松能否让人们买到时间变得理性,纠正前非? 我不敢奢望,只因人类根本不愿在走投无路前改过。
2013-06-26
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, 对于世界各国央行自金融海啸后普遍实施宽松政策和各国政府不断加大开支投入刺激经济的行为,我以往也较接受普遍流行的观点------减轻经济衰退对普罗大众的冲击、减轻金融体系的危机。但回头看看过去这几年宽松和刺激经济的措施都让哪些人真正得利和对市场长远的影响,我不得不改变我的观点,这些措施只是保护了金融寡头的利益,让债务社会化。经济出现问题、产生过多的泡沫,市场调整是自然的市场纠偏行为,但世界各国央行和政府经济政策制定者似乎已沉迷于宽松和刺激的手段,不断人为地阻挠市场纠偏的力量,不断地扭曲市场机制,每次都在制造更大的泡沫去挽救之前破灭的泡沫,似乎以为只要开动印钞机,泡沫就可无限继续下去。这种放纵是非常短视的行为,是透支着未来,是牺牲未来数代人的利益的自私行为。金融行业,特别是商业投资银行对各国经济政策制定者的影响力很大,甚至绑架了政策制定者,政府处于利益冲突的角色也令政府更愿意采取宽松和刺激经济政策。结果,市场不断被扭曲,经济系统中的结构性问题一点也没有纠正,刺激经济变成了刺激通胀,银行业成了市场里大得不能倒的不倒翁,其它行业却为此付出了沉重代价,而政府却因通胀减少了债务负担和增加了税收。从各国金融业,特别是银行业(中国也不例外)在各国国民经济中的收入比例可知银行及金融业的兴旺是在牺牲其它行业和普罗大众利益的财政政策中获得。银行业是一头永不知饱且非常短视的怪兽,如果不强加更多社会责任于其身上,并严格监管,迟早都会被其所害。

      最近,我在蔬果店购物时悟出了一点道理。蔬果的季节性很强,当令时价钱可以很便宜,不是季节时价钱可以是倍增,价格昂贵时通常销路并不好,但价钱下跌到某水平后,销路马上就回来。可见当价格水平回复到可负担水平后,经济活动就会恢复。目前全球的宽松政策阻碍了市场调整,维持着过往高成本运作的架构,结果经济活动无法恢复正常。另外,维持高地产价格是非常有害的,它不但推高了商业运营成本,影响经济发展,还有一点更大的危害,它牺牲了未来青年一代的利益。年青人要生儿育女,人类要繁衍,他们都必须有个家,高地产价格政策令年青一代无法负担一个家。发达国家人口老化与此也有莫大的关系。人类社会目前面对的是如何选择发展,是追求平衡的可持续发展,或是对精英权贵利益最有利的GPD?
2013-06-17
评论对象: 黄金与终极泡沫
Shalako, it is nothing unusual for such thing happening. As a saying goes, what goes around comes around, after enjoying all these luxuries unpaid for as necessity for so many years, inevitably it would turn around. Nature would correct great wrongs in a painful way. QEs were simply attempts by central banks to protect the privileged and socialize the debts. If market force was  allowed to go its own course and asset prices and living costs could be reset, economy could have started recovering already. Central banks are not solution, they are part of the problem.
2013-06-12
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An investor who is interested in politic and economic study.
 

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