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  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(16)

    yet would be able to put its most concern on rest with the knowledge that at least those nuclear weapons are in the control of a rational country who already has had the nuclear weapons any way; while China will not only keep the geographic buffer zone it needs against a country it does not trust totally, but also have a more stable hand upon the operation this buffer zone plays. Everyone comes out of the game as a winner.

    China, with the economic development achieved in the past 30 years, has indeed become much stronger than it was 30 years ago. But to be a real powerful country that can have a say over the course of international affairs, the mind-set of its leadership has to be changed.
    2009/6/2 13:52:40
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(15)

    while the “evil hand”, after having extended this far at a so high bloody cost, would certainly not shrink back on its own. A bigger war would become inevitable. With the economic interests of both countries have so interconnected right now that a war between them will serve none but damage both. It does not take a smart person to realize this common ground USA and China have, upon which a deal can be made. USA, though not fancying the idea that NK would be still under the control of a country with the same ideology who, after all the dust settles, would become more powerful than it is now,
    2009/6/2 13:50:49
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(14)

    People come into a negotiation with different goals. The art to make an agreement is to give each party the sense of reaching its goal when the deal is done. In this case, should a war indeed take place, the common sense naturally leads us to believe that USA and South Korea will eventually prevail.  If that would happen, China would be pushed again in the same corner it was in 60 years ago. If it would have to step in at that time, the situation would be much more complicated than the pre-planed scenario this deal, as discussed above, would otherwise have offered. What would both parties (China & USA) do then? China would definitely fight the “evil hand” at its doorsteps for its own security and interest;
    2009/6/2 13:48:03
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(13)

    Of course, the final success of it rests on the combination of the agreements negotiated by two governments, the detailed military plans hammered out by military generals and professionals, smooth communications before and during the war within the all parties involved, enough trust parties involved give to each other, and many other things.  

    Making a deal relies on the trust the parties involved gives to one another. People do not have to totally trust one another to make a deal, but only to have the belief that its counterpart is smart enough to have the common sense that doing otherwise will not benefit any, or the belief that its counterpart will not be stupid enough to look for failures merely for the reason to cause others to suffer with them.  
    2009/6/2 13:45:57
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(12)

    To put it bluntly, China this time works as an ally of USA to fight the same enemy, North Korea, as USA and Russia fought German in two different fronts during the WWII, based on the agreement between two countries that each has its own war zone for its ground force to work in, and will help each other as much as possible when asked. Only by doing so can we have some confidence to have a war lasting as a short period of time as possible. And only by doing so will the war, if inevitable, be channeled, by some well-prepared hands, towards the pre-designed goal that serves each party’s end.
    2009/6/2 13:44:25
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(11)

    But China, after its initial work to help the war end, will play a controlling hand in NK, at least in a temporary basis (even if it means to remove NK’s current power-holder). In return, China demands the same promise from USA not to ask more than what its defense responsibility bounded in its treaty with SK, which means that all its ground military activities, either initialized by its own action or by that of NK, must be defensive and thus defined in the area not above the current dividing line. By doing so, China will be, instead of an enemy of USA as it was during the last Korean War, acting as a cooperating hand to help it clean up the mess by working at the other end geographically.
    2009/6/2 13:40:57
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(10)

    With and ONLY with this assumption mentioned above, would it be better for China’s own interest, if it could make some secret deal with USA through some unseen channel? To make this deal work, China needs to make it as clearly as it can possibly do that, if the war indeed breaks loose for whatever reason or reasons, China will have to step in for its own interest, but ask no more than what the current situation is geographically, which means whatever actions China deems necessary, they will be confined in the upper zone currently defined by the dividing line (38). By doing so, China will avoid the direct confrontation with USA, something totally different from what it did 60 years ago.
    2009/6/2 13:39:25
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(9)

    What if, by accident caused by some faulty judgment of either side, something we human being always do, a party (be it USA or NK) believes that its worst nightmare is about to take place and it has to act militarily to stop it, worse still, a local military confrontation spins out of control and becomes an all out war? Is China well-prepared for its outcome? China will not initialize the war, but having a neighbor like NK, it will have to suffer the consequence of the war it has no control over the time and the scale. However remote the possibility of this scenario still looks like, China cannot afford not to be prepared, for in reality, shits do happen!
    2009/6/2 13:36:09
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(8)

    NK has been claiming that USA has the evil intention to overthrow its regime, either a true belief prompting it to go this far, or an excuse or a tactic used smartly to play the face of a victim, so that to make their demands on the negotiating table look justified in the eyes of the international community. But either way, it has been successfully marching towards its own goal, as the cost of the disorientated and even “bullied” big countries, so far.
    2009/6/2 13:35:22
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(7)

    China now is sitting at a negotiation table but lacks the power to control the decision making process of either end. Worst still, China has to live with whatever consequence coming out a decision by either end of the table.

    The concerns on US’s part are different from China’s is. After 911, its most concern in this current case, as government officials have pronounced in the media, is that NK may use the nuclear weapons to exchange for the money it badly needs with some extreme terrorists’ whose goal claimed is nothing but to destroy USA and the western civilization.  Thus the government of USA has the constitutional duty do anything & everything possible to keep it from happening.
    2009/6/2 13:34:12
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(6)

    and sees that anything other than negotiation would do more harm than good to its own safety and interest. Perhaps with this belief in mind, China has been engaging into this crisis management the way it has for the past six years, even though each time it has to stretch its patience to satisfied NK’s ever-increasing demands, now with the crisis unfolding before its eyes to test its limit. In the end, China, initially invited as a helping hand to solve a problem, has been gradually dragged in such an awkward position that its every move, towards any direction, will be either interpreted as not engaging enough or seen as a betrayal to an old friend.
    2009/6/2 13:32:54
  • Be Prepared for the worst ---(5)

    Should the answers to these questions be somewhat encouraging even in a stretched hope, we can, for now, wait for them to be answered, which is actually what the international community is doing----- praying for the right answers to emerge by giving up more and more each time NK shows its cards before the public eyes.  

    Each country (except NK) involved has different stakes in this crisis and therefore has been acting differently, even with the common goal----- to keep nuclear weapons from NK’s hand as far away as possible. China, though with an idea that a nuclear-equipped NK is not something it prefers in the first place, yet still holds the belief that this seemingly inevitable bad outcome is a new reality it can or has to live with,
    2009/6/2 13:31:04
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1986年获得英语语言文学和国际新闻双学士之后被中国国际电台聘用,1988年出任驻欧盟和北约首任记者,被派往欧洲联盟总部所在地、北大西洋公约组织总部所在地的布鲁塞尔,1992年调回北京总部担任时政采访部主任兼首席外交记者。1999年8月,开设了《纸上风云》专栏,定期撰写评论文章。著有《现代中国的面孔》。非左非右,不中不洋,里通外合,忽东忽西。


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