汪耀辉   草根首页 | 设为首页 | 加入收藏
谈笑人生 - 汪耀辉首页
通胀焦虑症候群
2009-04-13
字号:

  我敢说,有些人期盼通胀已经很久了,也有人已经为如何制造通胀伤透了脑筋,用尽力办法。可通胀迟迟不来,通缩反倒来了。

  虽然嘴上一定不承认,这些人骨子里很喜欢通胀,很想念通胀,他们得了“通胀相思病”(inflation-sick),此名称的中英文为本人最新合成,拟不申请专利保护。

  通胀有什么好的?有了通胀,“需求”才能被拉动起来,经济才能发展,政府才有政绩,商人才有生意做,工厂才能复工,就业矛盾才能缓解,多好啊?于是大家一起期待通胀,到处寻找通胀蛛丝马迹,努力制造通胀。

  先举个最新的例子,我把它当做笑话,虽然三月份的进出口额同比大幅度下降,可偏偏专家找到了复苏的“迹象”:三月的进出口额比二月环比增长了10%。不好笑吗?那就提示一下,请各位算算三月份的天数比二月多多少?

  如今世界各国的大规模刺激经济措施是为了制造通胀,G-20峰会的根本目的也是想通过国际合作,共同再造全球性通胀。

  美联储狂印美元,是为了制造通胀。

  保增长从一个侧面来说,是为了保通胀。

  三月份新增贷款1.89万亿元,资金供给增幅再创新高,是为了制造通胀。

  股市创出八个月来的新高,是为了制造通胀。

  楼市的人造“小阳春”,是为了制造通胀预期。

  与其说他们在试图制造通胀,不如说他们在对抗通缩。可惜的是,这会儿通胀制造不了,通缩抵抗不住!

  通胀一时半会儿来不了,于是各方开始焦虑不安。内心又急又盼,外在表现各不相同,形成了通胀焦虑症候群。

  对一些研究理论的人来说,通胀预期早就形成,不是一般的通胀预期,他们期待的是恶性通胀,是原油价格再创新高,是黄金上涨到三五千美元以上,是外汇储备变成废纸!他们最直接的证据就是美联储大肆印钞,人们的“财富”被严重稀释了。

  虽然被“稀释”了,恶性通胀还是没来,理论迟迟得不到验证,除了焦虑,还是焦虑。

  到底是什么原因呢?大概还没有稀释到位,大概商品价格被人为操纵,黄金价格被严重打压了。反正自己没错,自己学的理论不会错,肯定是别的什么地方不对劲。

  自我否定就是这么难!弄不好是要心理失衡的。

  也难怪,多年寒窗学了那么些西方经济学理论,容易吗?也许有些人这辈子还指着这门手艺过好日子呢。即使发觉有不对劲的地方,也得硬抗着。人总是要有信仰的嘛。

  CPI出现了负数,,一位央行副行长说了,现在说通货紧缩还为时过早--先扛一阵子再说。

  通缩有什么不好?至少老百姓喜欢,东西降价了嘛。我们的外汇储备购买力提高了嘛。为什么非得要逆势而为,看老百姓有俩储蓄不顺眼,非得要搞点通胀来逼着大家花钱,以便“降低储蓄率”?到底是以人为本,还是以钱为本,以数字为本?

  对于普通老百姓来说,通缩(降价)有利于提高他们那点存款的购买力,有利于拉动终端消费需求。而通胀则有利于拉动所谓的投资性(多数实为投机性)需求。

  市场价格的涨跌对于自用财产(如自住房)的主人来说,除了心理上的影响以外没有任何实质意义,反正不会卖掉,因此自住房不是商品,不存在“增值”或“缩水”的问题,增值和缩水的是他们的钞票。他们的存款(如果有的话)通胀时“缩水”,通缩时“增值”,如果他们有选择权的话,他们会选择哪一个?答案可想而知。

  对于炒房客来说,他们会做什么选择,同样一目了然。

  我时常说要跳出资产负债表的束缚,这里就是一个现成的例子:如果从“总资产”或者“所有者权益”的角度,来分析通胀对于上面那位自住房的主人的影响,可能会得出相反的结论,那就是通胀使得他的资产“增值”了,对他们有利,房子涨价了嘛。

  可见仅仅从数字出发,有时候会荒诞到什么地步!

  还嫌数字荒诞得不够,美国人仅仅通过修改会计准则,硬是让那些亏损的央行的帐面上出现许多“盈利”,这无疑是一种合法的做假行为,一种不太高级的数字游戏。

  很多时候,人们宁可相信数字。

  当人们谈论拉动内需的时候,往往有意无意地忽视真实(消费性)需求和虚假(投机性)需求的区别,只要数字上去了就行。实际上投机性需求是建立在真实需求的基础上,并利用一定的杠杆率将其放大,如果真实需求这个被乘数归零,乘数(杠杆率)再大结果也是零。

  由此可以看出,终端消费需求是所有其它类型需求的基础,我把它称为“基础需求”。拉动内需正确的出发点和着手点应当是首先拉动这个“基础需求”。

  通货膨胀减少人们的消费能力,是在抑制甚至扼杀基础需求,试图通过制造通货膨胀来走出危机的人们,实际上是在缘木求鱼。

  相反,通货紧缩提高了人们的购买力,可是这么说:拉动内需应当从拉动“基础需求”开始,而拉动“基础需求”则应当从适当可控的通货紧缩开始。而拉动“基础需求”最有效最直接的方法是房地产的大幅度降价。

  看了这些分析,您还会认为通货紧缩那么可怕吗?

  一个是增加基础需求,一个是增加基础货币投放量,我选择前者,而通胀焦虑症患者选择了后者,人家才是“主流”。

  通胀来不了,是因为还没充分通缩。

  大规模印钞制造不了通胀!也“稀释”不了“财富”,因为金钱本身压根就不是财富。虽然有些残酷,我还是要遗憾地告诉那些迷信西方经济学理论的人们:你们关于货币本质和通胀产生原因的认识,都是错的!如果抱定了那些观点,必定会虽然“衣带渐宽终不悔”,却落得“君问归期未有期”,焦躁不安的情绪会越来越严重。

  是时候了,该反思一下为何“该痛的地方不痛,不该痛的地方痛了”?到底哪儿该痛,哪儿不该痛?

  本人不太喜欢重复说过的话,说他们的那些认识都错了的理由,有关的理论方面的论述,有兴趣的读者可去参考拙作《戏说外汇储备》,这里就不多说了。

  举个例子来结束本文,很多人在论证大规模印钞会引发恶性通胀的时候,喜欢拿国民党时期滥发金圆券的时候的物价飞涨作为证据。我在和网友谈论这个例子的时候问他:当时到底是“钱”出了问题还是“物”出了问题?是物质极度匮乏还是产品和产能过剩?是东西太少了还是钱太多了,这两者中间哪个是因哪个是果?

  这些问题也留给大家思考。


所有文章只代表作者观点,与本站立场无关!
  • 通胀来不了,是因为还没充分通缩。
    2009/12/20 23:14:38
  • 《通缩繁荣是怎样流产的?》
    http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_542367d10100dw3z.html
    有劳管理员搬到草根来,谢谢!
    2009/6/17 17:41:18
  • to [老汪]
    That is also why I am giving an understanding to, though refusing to recognize their self-claimed justification of, the blame that the entire world is forcing upon USA & the Wall Street for the mess we are in now.The reality is that in a globe economy like what we have now, we are not just connected to one another, we have actually become a mixture. Everyone should & indeed does carry a share of responsibility, big or small, when things go wrong; as everyone was benefiting, more or less, when days were seemingly good and promising.
    2009/5/28 13:47:34
  • to [老汪]
    I will make some comments on the financial innovation next time. Thank you for your time. That is a conversation I have been looking for. I hope it is the same to you.
    2009/5/28 12:57:45
  • to [老汪]

    There are, as I have recognized, two kinds of knowledge in the world, academic intelligence and street smartness (a word I learnt from mafia movies). The former gives you a sense of limit in theory, while the latter provides you an understanding of the skills needed in operations in reality. The combination of both, with a mastering hand adding different ounces from each when facing different circumstance, becomes what we call the art of management.
    2009/5/28 12:53:45
  • to [老汪]

    Those voices have, in my opinion, added upon the government’s already shaky shoulders some extra burdens it otherwise would have been able to avoid. I indeed want to give them this hard-earned credit for the freedom it has given the public, even though the consequence of which is now haunting itself.  
    2009/5/28 12:52:53
  • to [老汪]
    By offering the government an idea here and an idea there, the effects of which, though carrying some sense of reason, are highly questionable, the public is being given a faked sense of hope that there is indeed something that the government can do to pull the economy out of the hole and put it back on the track like those good old days, while in reality, those days are long gone. What also has surprised me and thus earned my admiration is the fact that the government has not shut up those un-helping voices, as it would have done in China before.
    2009/5/28 12:51:23
  • to 老汪
    But in a crisis, the public, besides an assuring voice, also needs a channel to release their anger in the noble name of “justice”, though in reality the actions may not be as fair & justified as they either have not realized or ever want to admit.  

    I sometimes am stunned & dismayed that, with the government being under such a challenging pressure, those experts still would not let it free.  
    2009/5/28 12:47:30
  • to [老汪]
    That is also why I am giving an understanding to, though refusing to recognize their self-claimed justification of, the blame that the entire world is forcing upon USA & the Wall Street for the mess we are in now, even though the reality is that in a globe economy like what we have now, we are not just connected to one another, we have actually become a mixture. Everyone should & indeed does carry a share of responsibility, big or small, when things go wrong; as everyone was benefiting, more or less, when days were seemingly good and promising.
    2009/5/28 12:45:10
  • to 老汪
    but for the social order, also an important responsibility a government carries, it has to say something untrue to the public, while behind closed doors, they know where they are at & what the reality is. I would give them credit for having the necessary skills to manage a crisis and the wisdom to know what they CANNOT do. Whether or not we know what they are actually doing is not important. What is indeed important is if the government does know what it is actually doing. We will see.

    2009/5/28 12:43:45
  • to 老汪
    Under this notion, I questioned the wisdom guiding what the government is saying in public, as I said I would rather believe that they are manipulating those numbers published to give the public a sense of calm & assurance desperately needed, at the same time feeding the public some sense of reality. By doing so, it would buy some time for the public’s mind to transfer from one phase to another as smoothly as possible. I would actually feel more assured if the government would realize that things have become so messed up and that it has pretty much stretched its power as far as possible to deal with the mess,
    2009/5/28 12:42:49
  • to 老汪
    They also would have to know that at some certain time, the parents would have to let the growing kid to roaming into his unpredictable future to live his own life, as to let him learn how to stand up without a help from outside when he is mastering the skill of walking. In the end, it is the child itself that manages its own growing up through its own efforts.  

    2009/5/28 12:41:15
评分与评论 真差 一般 值得一看 不错 太棒了
姓名 
联系方式
  评论员用户名 密码 注册为评论员
   发贴后,本网站会记录您的IP地址。请注意,根据我国法律,网站会将有关您的发帖内容、发帖时间以及您发帖时的IP地址的记录保留至少60天,并且只要接到合法请求,即会将这类信息提供给有
关机构。详细使用条款>>
草根简介


1963年的老虎,无党派人士,1983年毕业于上海交大机械工程系,曾参加国家重点工程的建设十年,任某合资企业负责人十年,现为自由职业者。
OZ先生简介:海外华侨,在中国生活过,曾非常贫穷,给别人打过工,也曾当过雇主,46岁即退休,主要的经济收入来自股票投资收益。目前在闲暇之余仍进行股票投资,热爱读书,思考和写作。

最新评论 更多>>

最新文章 更多>>
关于我们  联系我们:QQ513460486 邮箱:icaogen@126.com
CopyRight © 2006-2013 www.caogen.com All Rights Reserved 浙ICP备11047994号